A recent analysis by researchers Tom Davidson, Rose Hadshar, and Will MacAskill, examines three potential pathways for an intelligence explosion driven by artificial intelligence (AI) systems.
The analysis was published on the blog of Forethought, a non-profit dedicated to exploring and addressing the challenges associated with advanced AI systems. The group’s research aims to inform strategies for managing the development and deployment of AI technologies.
The first pathway, termed a software intelligence explosion, involves AI systems autonomously enhancing their own software. This self-improvement could lead to rapid advancements in AI capabilities without external intervention. The feedback loop in this scenario is confined to software enhancements.
The second pathway, known as an AI-technology intelligence explosion, encompasses AI-driven advancements in both software and chip technology. In this scenario, AI systems not only refine their software but also contribute to the design of more advanced computer chips. This dual improvement could accelerate AI development beyond the pace achievable through software enhancements alone.
The third pathway, referred to as a full-stack intelligence explosion, incorporates AI-driven improvements across software, chip technology, and chip production. Here, AI systems enhance their software, design superior chips, and automate chip manufacturing processes. This comprehensive approach could lead to a rapid and extensive increase in AI capabilities.
The analysis suggests that even if a software intelligence explosion does not occur or reaches a plateau, the other two pathways remain viable. These pathways might start gradually but have the potential to accelerate significantly. Each feedback loop could independently drive accelerating AI progress, with effective computing power potentially increasing by 20 to 30 orders of magnitude before encountering physical limitations. Such advancements could result in substantial improvements in AI capabilities.
The type of intelligence explosion also has implications for the distribution of power. A software intelligence explosion could concentrate power within a single country or company, given the reliance on software improvements alone. In contrast, a full-stack intelligence explosion might distribute power more broadly across multiple countries and industries, due to the widespread integration of AI-driven enhancements in software, chip technology, and production.
This analysis provides a framework for understanding potential trajectories of AI development and their broader implications. It underscores the importance of considering multiple pathways and their distinct impacts on technological progress and power distribution.
